Unless explicitly mentioned, there is no collaboration with the projects mentioned in this edition.
GM frens,
Markets are weird — and we kind of love it.
We’ve had a week of straight-up terrible economic data. U.S. GDP turned negative. Recession chatter is no longer hypothetical — it’s getting priced in. The unemployment rate is on deck today, and if it spikes even slightly from last month’s 4.2%, expect the “we’re already in a recession” narrative to go full send.
But here’s the kicker: bad data is now good for markets.
Why? Rate cut hopium.
The Fed meets next week (May 6–7), and expectations are shifting fast. Traders are starting to bake in a surprise cut —under the logic that the Fed will panic just enough to act, without making it look like panic. Cut too little, market fades. Cut too hard, and it looks like something’s seriously broken.
And crypto’s front-running the chaos.
Bitcoin blew past $95K like it was nothing, yet now is back to the $95K area. ETF inflows are back in the green, shorts are getting wrecked ($150M+ in liquidations).
Meanwhile, altcoins are lagging — again. Total3 is stuck. ETH’s holding water. Dominance climbing. Still very much a BTC-led move.
A few standouts (HYPE, S, some memes, VIRTUAL and some low caps like XMW of course), but overall? The market’s in “wait and rotate” mode.
CT is split between “bull run confirmed” and “recession incoming.” The Fear and Greed index ticked up from 51 to 55, showing rising confidence — but not euphoric. That’s usually the most dangerous place: in between.
So where’s the real action ? On-chain. And on X.
If you’ve been on X lately, you’ve probably noticed the uptick in noise around Bittensor.
Subnet counts are exploding, dynamic emissions are live, and devs are calling it the most interesting thing happening in crypto AI right now. It’s moved from narrative token to something more — an actual incentive layer with real usage and coordination mechanics.
And on the agent side of things, $SERV is quietly pushing out infra while everyone else is still talking whitepapers. SDK shipped. Devs building. Dash.fun coming. But the window to capture attention is tight — and the token still has to prove it’s more than speculative.
So today, we’re zooming in: a case study on Bittensor’s evolution into a decentralized AI economy, and a Moon or Dust check-in on $SERV as it preps for its first real usage wave.
Before we dive in this Week’s Newsletter
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🔔 Key Development: Mantle ($MNT) is Now Listed on Coinbase – Momentum, Not Hype
Let’s not downplay this: Mantle just got listed on Coinbase — and that’s a big deal.
Coinbase doesn’t list just anything. They pick tokens with momentum, strong backing, and real use. Most of the time.
And it gives $MNT more traction and makes it more accessible for mass adoption.
Here’s what they’ve got live:
Ethereum restaking tools
Fixed-yield vaults (already filled)
A fast HyperEVM bridge
Growing interest from institutions
It’s not just hype — it’s real structure and progress. And this listing pushes it all forward.
What I like about Mantle is that they’re building a complete ecosystem, step by step. They don’t need to rush into getting listed everywhere — as the Mantle ecosystem grows stronger, making the token accessible to everyone becomes just a formality.
They built the tech, filled the vaults, and proved the system works. So when Coinbase finally listed it, they weren’t just listing a token — they were listing a whole working ecosystem.
Even better, the token on Coinbase is the same one used across the Mantle network. No wrapped tokens, no split liquidity — just one strong, unified asset with deeper liquidity and more reach.
🌉 Bridge to Yield: HyperEVM Integration Is Live
Meanwhile, HyperEVM is now integrated into the official mETH Protocol Bridge.
Users can now bridge $cmETH and $COOK from Ethereum or Mantle to HyperEVM, unlocking new native yield venues like the HyperETH Vault on Mizu. These aren’t basic farm-and-dump rewards — we’re talking Powder incentives, protocol points, and passive exposure to one of the most composable ETH-native restaking layers around.
Big milestone: the $cmETH Fixed Yield Vault is 100% filled — 30,000 $cmETH locked.
Offers ~5–6% APY (3–4% from ETH staking + 2% fixed)
Fully managed. No active restaking required.
Designed for institutions and passive players
This isn't a temporary promo — it’s a proof point. There's clear demand for stable, risk-adjusted ETH yield. And Mantle’s capturing that flow.
📈 April Recap – Traction Across the Stack
$cmETH supply up 5.93% (now at 225,177)
Mantle-native $cmETH up 4.9% to 105,396
Bybit restaking flows 3.5x’d in Q1
$mETH added to MI4, Mantle’s $400M institutional fund
Add in the EigenLayer slashing activation, and both $mETH and $cmETH are now positioned to ride the next phase of restaking evolution — with active and passive strategies dialed in.
🎯 Infra + Season 3: Methamorphosis
HyperEVM infra verified on Sepolia testnet
cmETH/COOK trading live on Hyperliquid
New “Earn” hub aggregates all Season 3 boosted reward venues
From Demex’s Pendle LP to Thetanuts and Merchant Moe’s, the reward stack is growing — and it's getting easier to track.
🧩 Context – From “Decentralized OpenAI” to Open Incentive Layer
Bittensor has been lumped into the “AI token” narrative for over a year—but that label misses the mark. There’s nothing inherently “AI” about it.
At its core, Bittensor is an incentive layer, a decentralized coordination engine that rewards the most useful outputs—whether that’s language models, protein folds, sports predictions, or 3D assets. Think of it as a permissionless incubator where emissions are the funding, and value is measured in queries answered, models ranked, and impact created.
Its real innovation? It turns usefulness into a mining mechanism.
Mine = intelligence, not hashrate.
Launched with one flagship language model subnet, Bittensor is now in its second phase: a full-scale, live-market for useful AI work.
🛠️ The Rise of Subnets – Startups with Emissions-Backed Valuations
Each subnet on Bittensor is a standalone neural service. They’re not “dApps”—they’re micro-economies with tokenized attention flows.
Daily inference calls: ~34M Top subnet (#18 Math & Code): ~4M/day, latency <120ms 67%+ of TAO emissions now flow outside the original subnet
Subnets function like startups competing for block rewards, with emissions as the KPI. The more valuable the service (as judged by the market), the more emissions it receives.
🔎 Concrete Examples
⚽ ScorePredict / SportTensor / B-Tensor – ML for sports betting; some working with top clubs and HFs; “Billy Bet” is a subnet-native auto-betting agent.
🧬 ProteinFold (Subnet #42) – Fork of AlphaFold2, launched April 8; 1.1M queries in 24h. First science-grade workload on-chain.
The biggest protocol shift came with Dynamic TAO, rolled out in Q1 2025.
Before: 64 centralized validators decided how emissions were distributed across subnets—opening the door to collusion, lazy copying, and validator-owned subnet bias.
After: The market decides.
Now, each subnet has an α-token (its own mini-asset). TAO holders can “stake” into these pools via subnet AMMs. The higher the token price, the more emissions the subnet receives.
Incentives flipped:
Users rotate TAO into promising subnet tokens
Subnets compete to maintain value (and emissions)
Validator control is diluted by market pressure
This is real-time, on-chain value signaling.
It’s no longer “Who has the best model?” It’s “Which subnet convinces the market it’s the most useful?”
Bonus: TAO subnets now support cross-subnet compute flows. One subnet is now mining Bitcoin via TAO-secured compute.
⚠️ Key Risks
Centralized Validator Stake – Top 5 validators control ~65% of TAO; Nakamoto coefficient = 9.
Regulatory Ambiguity – Serving AI inference = data liability (esp. EU AI Act Art. 53).
Speculation > Substance – Alpha-token markets are thin, often gamed.
Subnet Risk Curve – Most α-tokens dump 60–80% post-launch. This is not safe staking.
TLDR: TAO staking on subnets = leveraged bets on early-stage AI projects. Safer alternative? Stake to Subnet 0 for base emissions (less upside, no α-token exposure).
🧠 Personal Take – What Bittensor Really Is
Let’s cut the noise: Bittensor isn’t a bet on AI.
It’s a bet on incentivized coordination.
A testbed for permissionless funding, where emissions flow to services that prove value. Not through governance, not via VC grants—but in real-time, by market action.
It’s chaotic. It’s unpredictable. And it’s one of the few places in Web3 where attention, tokens, and output are fully integrated.
Want AI infra exposure? Most chains have “AI” on their roadmap. Bittensor has 60+ running projects, emission markets, and an entire subnet economy.
TAO becomes a meta-asset for AI liquidity, with subnet tokens reflecting real-time attention shifts.
Long-term? If Dynamic TAO works, TAO could be the gas for a decentralized model economy.
If not? We’ll see value fragment into subnet-native ecosystems—some of which may 50–100x on their own.
2/ Crypto & DeFi News
🎯 Tether Posts $1B Profit, But Reserve Cushion Tightens
Tether pulled in over $1 billion in operating profit in Q1 2025, while total exposure to U.S. Treasurys swelled to $120 billion. That includes $98.5B in direct bills and $23B+ through repo and cash-equivalent strategies. Circulating USDT supply grew by $7B, alongside 46 million new wallets.
But the real headline? Its excess reserves—the safety buffer above liabilities—dropped from $7.1B to $5.6B, the lowest since mid-2024. Meanwhile, Tether is deploying over $2B of capital into AI, renewable energy, peer-to-peer comms, and digital infrastructure.
USDT and USDC now control 87% of the stablecoin market. The U.S. Treasury expects the dollar-pegged stablecoin sector to hit $2 trillion by 2028.
Thoughts
Tether is doing central bank numbers off crypto rails—but the shrinking cushion is a flashing yellow light. Profit is surging, yes, but reserves are thinning just as adoption ramps. At $5.6B, they still have room—unless something breaks.
And that’s the real tension: as USDT becomes more systemically important, expectations change. Investors don’t just want stability—they demand predictable safety. Pouring billions into AI and green energy might be visionary, but it also stretches focus. If there’s ever a depeg scare, no one’s going to care about Tether’s climate portfolio.
Europe’s sounding alarms for a reason. When a single offshore entity holds $120B in Treasurys and underpins global crypto liquidity, it’s not just a stablecoin—it’s shadow monetary policy. And it’s one peg slip away from ripple effects across CeFi, DeFi, and TradFi.
Tether isn’t just growing—it’s evolving into something regulators still don’t know how to define. And that makes it both incredibly powerful… and incredibly fragile.
📲 Ethena’s USDe Goes Mobile-Native via Telegram x TON
Ethena is launching its stablecoin suite (USDe + sUSDe) directly into Telegram via The Open Network (TON), creating tsUSDe—a new dollar-denominated savings token for 1B+ users. It’ll be embedded across custodial and non-custodial wallets, like TON Space and Keeper.
Telegram users can earn 10% APY in TON plus Ethena incentives. The rollout begins this month, and LayerZero will enable future interoperability with 100+ chains. The move could turn Telegram into the most widely distributed neobank in the world.
Thoughts
This is one of the most important stablecoin launches of the year—and it barely made headlines.
By embedding US dollar savings directly inside Telegram, Ethena is unlocking crypto-native yield for the next billion users. In regions with unstable currencies or limited banking access—think Latin America, Africa, Southeast Asia—tsUSDe is effectively a high-yield checking account, running entirely on-chain.
This isn’t about crypto nerds farming new tokens—it’s about turning Telegram into the WeChat of DeFi. If TON pulls this off, it could become the dominant Layer 1 for emerging markets, skipping the entire legacy banking stack in the process.
And here’s the kicker: while Meta struggles with privacy blowback and Apple fights over App Store control, Telegram just shipped a decentralized stablecoin rail to a billion phones. Quietly. Efficiently. Globally.
🧠 Bitcoin DeFi Targets Ethereum’s Throne With 300M Users
Build on Bitcoin co-founder Alexei Zamyatin is betting big: the first DeFi protocol to nail UX and yield on Bitcoin will win the entire market—one with over 300 million addressable users.
Babylon Protocol already has $4.6B TVL (80% of BTC DeFi), and BitVM now enables complex contracts on Bitcoin via Layer 2s.
The problem? Bridges. Institutions remain skittish. Zamyatin argues most failures stem from mismanaged keys, not the tech itself. His solution? Boost signer sets from 5 to 50+, add trust layers, and make Bitcoin-native yield as seamless as staking ETH.
Thoughts
Bitcoin DeFi is real now—but it’s fragile. While Ethereum still dominates in TVL and devs, Bitcoin offers unparalleled brand power, security, and dormant liquidity. There are millions of BTC holders who’ve never touched DeFi because the UX sucks and bridges are terrifying.
If someone can deliver a clean, secure yield-on-BTC product that doesn’t involve three chains and a Reddit tutorial, they’ll unlock an ocean of demand. Babylon’s early traction proves the appetite is there.
But bridging remains the final boss. Institutional capital won’t enter until protocols solve for custody, compliance, and key management. That means we need Bitcoin-native bridging—not just wrapped assets on EVM chains.
Zamyatin’s vision isn’t crazy. If Bitcoin becomes more than a vault—if it becomes a yield-bearing financial layer—it could flip the DeFi landscape. But it’ll take time, and probably a few more bridge hacks, to get there.
📈 Solana ETF Odds Hit 90% – Bloomberg Flips Bullish on Altcoins
Bloomberg Intelligence raised the odds of Solana ETF approval to 90% in 2025.
XRP and DOGE ETFs also saw improved chances. Six asset managers—including Grayscale, VanEck, and 21Shares—have Solana filings waiting at the SEC.
The shift follows Trump’s crypto-friendly pivot, the launch of SOL futures on CME, and mounting pressure on the SEC to fast-track ETF reviews. Nasdaq also filed for a DOGE ETF. Approval decisions could roll in by October.
Thoughts
This could be Solana’s most bullish catalyst since the launch of BONK.
A spot ETF would inject institutional legitimacy and passive capital into the Solana ecosystem—on par with what happened to ETH post-ETF approval. It’s not just about flows, though. It’s about narrative. A Solana ETF says: “This isn’t just a fast chain—it’s an investable, credible asset class.”
But there’s risk. Solana’s volatility, downtime, and memecoin mania don’t exactly scream “mature institutional asset.” The bet here is that speed and ecosystem growth outweigh those concerns.
If approved, SOL could leapfrog everything but BTC and ETH in capital rotation. ETFs make coins investable to boomers, pensions, and passive retail—all while handing Solana the kind of validation most alt L1s only dream of.
💥 Ripple’s $5B Attempt to Buy Circle Got Rejected
Ripple reportedly made a $4B–$5B offer to acquire Circle, the USDC issuer. The offer was rejected—likely deemed too low, especially with Circle prepping for an IPO. This comes after Ripple’s $1.2B acquisition of prime broker Hidden Road and its continued push into tokenized finance.
Ripple has positioned itself as a future stablecoin superpower—but this deal didn’t close.
Thoughts
If Ripple had landed Circle, it would’ve been the biggest crypto M&A move since Binance bought CoinMarketCap. This wasn’t just about expanding product lines—it was about control over the second-largest stablecoin in the game. Ripple would’ve instantly gone from XRP narrative survivor to stablecoin juggernaut.
The rejection highlights how hot the stablecoin space has become. With regulation heating up, real-world asset tokenization booming, and TradFi sniffing around, Circle probably sees itself as a $10B+ entity. And with USDC increasingly linked to PayPal, Visa, and government pilots, that’s not wishful thinking.
But Ripple isn’t out. With $11B+ on its books (depending on how you value XRP reserves), they have the firepower to make another move—or back a new challenger. Either way, this won’t be their last play in the stablecoin wars.
3/ Moon or Dust: $SERV OpenServ
I’ve been tracking $SERV for a long time, and yes—I still hold a bag. With AI-agent talk cooling off after March’s market wash-out, it’s time to weigh whether OpenServ is a future rocket…or just dust.
🧠 The Core Concept
OpenServ is building infrastructure for autonomous, multi-agent teams:
Collaboration Protocol – a message bus so agents built in any language or chain can coordinate tasks.
Cognition Framework – persistent memory + reasoning to let agents learn and self-audit.
dash.fun (Q2 2025) – consumer front-end showcasing AI-powered research & trade execution, meant to ignite fee flow.
Builders’ Playground – SDK already live; >1.5 k devs signed up during the March hackathon with Crossmint.
Most “agent” projects are still white-papers; OpenServ has external teams prototyping today, but monetisation only starts once dash.fun and fee mechanics go live.
📊 Token & Treasury Highlights
Key point: almost all strategic/seed allocations are already unlocked, so there’s minimal vesting overhang—but also no scarcity tail-wind.
🚀 Why SERV Could Moon
1. Middleware for the Agent Boom If AI agents become the next big meta, the protocol that standardizes communication between them wins. OpenServ’s Collaboration Protocol is one of the first live infrastructures built for this. First-mover advantage could mean massive network effects.
2. dash.fun Launch = First Real Demand Their public-facing platform, dash.fun, goes live in Q2 2025. It’s the first product that will actually require $SERV for transactions (gas + staking). If it gains traction, this could be the moment $SERV shifts from pure speculation to utility-backed demand.
3. Utility = Token Sink (Eventually) Token burns and staking bonds are planned to activate once products are live. That means:
Revenue used to burn SERV (↓ supply)
Agent creators need to stake SERV to access higher-tier usage (↓ float) Reflexive flywheel unlocked if usage comes through.
4. Multi-Chain Expansion = Fresh TAM Integrations with Solana and Base are on the roadmap. These could:
Tap into new user bases
Trigger liquidity mining or incentive programs That means new attention + more token usage across chains.
5. Institutional Eyes Watching Messari covered OpenServ in its “Building the Agentic Economy” report—a rare spotlight for a <$30M cap project. That puts $SERV on analyst radars and opens the door to bigger wallets.
⚠️ Why SERV Could Dust
1. Utility Still Vaporware As of now, $SERV has no real use. No fees, no staking, no sinks. If dash.fun doesn’t deliver soon, there’s nothing backing the token except narrative.
2. Float Is Already Loose 90% of the total supply is already unlocked. That means:
No “up only” effect from scarcity
Treasury, seed, and LP wallets can sell at will
3. Competitive Landscape Is Heating Up Big names Bittensor are building AI-agent infra. OpenServ needs real traction fast before they get overshadowed or boxed into a niche.
4. Centralized Liquidity = Risky LP 25% of the main SERV/WETH pool is team-owned. Great for providing depth, but if they ever pull it, slippage goes vertical and trust takes a hit.
5. Uncharted Legal Terrain Autonomous agents interacting with DeFi = unexplored legal risks. If regulators start cracking down or if an exploit hits the platform, confidence could evaporate quickly.
🔮 Final Verdict: High-Beta Option on Agent Adoption
OpenServ offers an asymmetric bet: a live SDK, visible dev traction and a clear path to enabling revenue-backed token sinks, yet still priced like a speculative micro-cap. If dash.fun launches on time and real fees arrive, SERV could revisit its December ATH (~$0.14) for a ~3-4×.
Failure to ship—or simply slower adoption while >600 M tokens circulate—could grind it back to IDO multiples in the $0.01-0.02 zone.
Verdict:Mid-term Moon Potential, Execution-Dependent. Size accordingly, set alerts on treasury moves, and—same drill.
NFA, DYOR 🫡
That’s it for today frens!
Thank you for sticking around, your future self will thank you. You can follow me on X @CryptoShiro_.
